Westlake Village Data Science Meetup: What happened to El Nino last winter?

We are glad to announce that our speaker for the next meetup is Charles Fisk, a meteorologist and data analyst at Naval Base Ventura County at Point Mugu, near Oxnard . Since the mid-1990’s he’s been heavily involved in creating planning and scheduling decision-aid products for the military, both general and customized, that utilize statistical methods and graphical techniques. He’s participated in many Meteorology and Statistics conferences and made presentations in Applied Climatology, Aviation Weather, Hydrology, Artificial Intelligence, Probability and Stats applications in Meteorology, statistical graphics, and Sports (NFL Football). He maintains a hobby web-site (Climatestations.com) that presents various climatological graphics products for eight stations across the United States, among them Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco.

In the presentation, he will demonstrate the use of K-Means clustering analysis combined with a special add-on optimizing feature called V-Fold Cross-Validation Algorithm in identifying climatological anomaly patterns (or “modes”) in total seasonal precipitation across 12 climate divisions covering coastal California, Oregon, and Washington. The patterns’ (seven in number) relative frequencies and anomaly configurations will be described and compared, and then a conditional variable, ENSO phase, will be introduced to investigate how six different ones (Strong La Nina, La Nina, Neutral, Weak El Nino, Moderate El Nino, and Strong El Nino) influence the patterns’ occurrence likelihoods (Bayesian treatment). Turns out that the 2015-16 season along the West Coast, in aggregate, behaved more like a “Strong” La Nina then a “Strong” El Nino, a result not experienced in at least 120 years of record".

The date is Tuesday December 13. The time is the regular time: 5:30 open networking, 6:00 presentation.